What's Really Happening in the Johnson County Housing Market? - December 2025 Update

As the year comes to a close, the Johnson County housing market is settling into something we haven’t seen in several years: stability. Prices remain strong, demand is steady, and inventory is finally rising—slowly, but meaningfully.

If you’re planning to buy or sell in 2026, understanding where the market stands right now is the best way to prepare. Below is a clear, data-driven snapshot of what’s happening in Johnson County today, combined with my professional outlook for the year ahead.

The Big Picture: Prices Are Up, but the Frenzy Is Gone

The most recent public data (through late fall 2025) shows that the median sale price in Johnson County is approximately $465,000, reflecting roughly a 5–6% increase from last year.

This is a healthy, moderate level of appreciation—not the runaway growth we saw in the early 2020s, but not stagnation either.

Homes are also selling faster than they were a year ago. In several JoCo cities—Overland Park, Prairie Village, and Leawood among them—days on market have shortened, a sign that buyers are still active and willing to move quickly when the right home appears.

This is not a cooling market. It’s a maturing market.

Inventory Is Rising (Finally), But Still Lean

One of the most important shifts in 2025 has been the increase in available homes. Depending on the source, Johnson County currently shows:

• 1,664 to ~1,700 active listings, based on fall 2025 data
• Slightly over 3,000 total “for sale” homes across all platforms (which include condos, townhomes, and duplicated listings)

No matter which data set you use, the picture is clear:
There are more homes available today than there were a year ago.

That matters.

More listings don’t mean a buyer’s market, not yet, but they do mean buyers have more options than they did in 2021–early 2025. We’re inching closer to a balanced environment.

At the moment, Johnson County sits at roughly a three-month supply of homes. A truly balanced market sits closer to four to six months, so we are still tilted toward sellers, but not nearly as dramatically as before.

Which Homes Are Selling, and Who’s Buying Them

Smaller homes and updated properties under $500K remain the strongest performers. These attract:

• First-time buyers
• Downsizers
• Young families prioritizing school zones
• Dual-income households who want turnkey homes

Well-presented homes in Prairie Village, Westwood, Roeland Park, Fairway, Mission, and central Overland Park continue to draw immediate attention.

Larger or higher-priced homes are still selling, but the buyer pool is thinner, and pricing accuracy is critical.

Across all segments, the days of assuming a home will sell in 48 hours—no matter the condition—are over. The 2026 buyer is thoughtful, cautious, and resistant to overpaying.

My 2026 Outlook: A More Balanced, Sustainable Market

Barring any major economic shock, 2026 is shaping up to be a stable, balanced year for Johnson County real estate.

Here’s what I anticipate:

1. A Continued Shift Toward Balance

We are moving, slowly, toward a more even market where neither side has overwhelming leverage.

Buyers gain breathing room.
Sellers gain predictability.
Both can plan without panic.

With a three-month supply today and a target of four to six months for full balance, the shift is already underway.

2. Popular Neighborhoods Will Still Sell Quickly—If Priced Correctly

Strong-demand pockets will always move:

• Prairie Village
• Westwood
• Fairway
• Mission
• Certain OP school zones

But pricing correctly is no longer optional. Overpricing now leads to longer days on market and inevitable price drops.

In 2026, buyers are willing to walk away and that alone changes the market rhythm.

3. Bidding Wars Won’t Disappear—They Just Won’t Be Guaranteed

We’ll still see multiple offers on:

• Updated homes under $500K
• Homes in top elementary school districts
• Turnkey listings with modern updates

Competition exists, but frenzy does not.

4. Buyer Concessions Are Back and They’re Here to Stay

For the first time in years, buyers are successfully asking for:

• Closing-cost credits
• Inspection repairs
• Interest-rate buydowns
• Home warranties
• Flexible closing timelines

Sellers who refuse to negotiate may find their home sitting longer than expected.

5. Expect Many Homes to Sell Under Asking Price

Sellers should adjust expectations.
In 2026, most homes will sell:

• At asking
• Slightly under asking
• Or with modest concessions

This is not a sign of a weak market, it’s a sign of a healthy one.

6. Home Valuations Will Keep Rising, But at a Sustainable Pace

The sharp spikes of 2020–2024 are behind us, and that’s a good thing. Sustainable appreciation protects homeowners and prevents the kind of destabilizing bubble no one wants.

Moderate growth means:

• Equity builds steadily
• Affordability doesn’t collapse
• Buyers can enter the market responsibly
• Sellers benefit long-term instead of peaking short-term

This kind of consistency is exactly what keeps Johnson County resilient.

A Special Note on Condos: Lending Challenges Are Slowing Sales

One of the clearest shifts in late 2025 is how differently condos are performing compared to single-family homes. While detached homes in Johnson County continue to move at a steady pace, condos are taking noticeably longer to sell and it has little to do with demand and everything to do with lending.

1. Stricter Lending Standards Are Limiting Buyer Pools

Many condo complexes in Johnson County are facing tighter scrutiny under newer lending guidelines. Lenders are looking closely at:

• HOA reserves
• Special assessments
• Insurance coverage
• Delinquency rates
• Structural or deferred-maintenance issues
• Owner-occupancy ratios

If a condo association doesn’t meet certain thresholds, buyers may not qualify for conventional financing, even if they are otherwise strong candidates.

This instantly shrinks the available buyer pool and puts downward pressure on demand.

2. Some Condos Are Becoming “Cash Only”

A growing number of local listings are now labeled cash only, simply because lenders won’t approve the building. While this doesn’t mean the condo is a bad home, it does mean:

• Fewer buyers
• Longer days on market
• Lower sale prices
• More negotiation leverage for buyers

Sellers in these complexes must price aggressively and market strategically—they may only get one strong opportunity with a buyer.

3. Price It Right or Risk Missing the Window

Condos don’t have the immediate turnaround that single-family homes do. If a condo launches overpriced, especially in a building with lending challenges, it can sit for weeks or months and become stale.

In 2026:

Pricing strategy matters more for condos than at any time in the past decade.
Overpricing will cost you real money and real time.

4. HOA Health Has Never Been More Important

For owners and buyers alike, understanding the financial and operational health of your HOA is now critical. Before listing or buying, it’s essential to know:

• Are reserves fully funded?
• Are special assessments planned?
• What is the insurance situation?
• Is the building approved for conventional loans (Fannie/Freddie)?
• What is the owner-occupancy ratio?

A healthy HOA attracts lenders and buyers. A struggling HOA creates friction in every part of the transaction.

Bottom Line: Condos Require Strategy in 2026

The condo market isn’t collapsing, but it is more sensitive, more nuanced, and more dependent on proper pricing than the single-family segment.

If you’re thinking of selling a condo:

• Get your HOA documents early
• Work with an agent who understands financing requirements
• Price with precision
• Expect more negotiation and a longer timeline

If you’re buying a condo:

• Do your due diligence
• Ask detailed HOA questions
• Expect fewer financing options in certain buildings
• Don't be surprised if the deal falls through in underwriting

What This Means for You

If You’re Thinking of Selling in 2026

You can still expect a strong, but not chaotic, market.
Success will hinge on:

• Correct pricing
• Proper preparation
• Strategic marketing
• Willingness to negotiate

Homes that check these boxes will continue to sell quickly.

If You’re Thinking of Buying in 2026

This year offers something buyers haven’t had in a long time: options.

More inventory + moderate prices + more negotiation = a much healthier environment for making a smart purchase.

If You’re Planning for Later in 2026

Now is the time to research neighborhoods, understand value pockets, and get financially positioned. Spring may bring more listings, but it will also bring more competition.

Looking Ahead

Johnson County enters 2026 with one of the strongest, most stable housing markets in the region. Growth is steady. Demand is consistent. The extremes of recent years have finally started to normalize into something sustainable, predictable, and healthy.

If you’d like a personalized breakdown of your neighborhood or want help planning a strategy for buying or selling in 2026, I’d love to connect.